Murder Statistics in the US 2026 | Key Facts

Murder Statistics in America 2026

The story of murder in the United States in 2026 is, against all expectations, one of genuinely historic progress. After the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the largest single-year spike in homicides since 1900 — a staggering 31% surge in murders in 2020 — the country has been clawing its way back from that devastating peak. And the latest data confirms that the comeback has been real, sustained, and accelerating. According to the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) Year-End 2025 Crime Trends Report, published in January 2026, the rate of reported homicides fell by 21% in 2025 compared to 2024 across 35 major U.S. cities — the largest single-year percentage drop ever recorded. The FBI’s preliminary data covering September 2024 through August 2025 showed an 18% decline in homicides nationwide, while independent crime analyst Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and a former CIA crime analyst, projects the full-year 2025 national homicide rate will land at approximately 4.2 per 100,000 residents — below the previous FBI-era record low of 4.4 per 100,000 set in 2014. The CCJ’s own projection puts the final figure even lower, at approximately 4.0 per 100,000 — a number that, if confirmed when the FBI releases full 2025 data later in 2026, would be the lowest homicide rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to the year 1900.

Context matters enormously here. The 2025 murder statistics in the US do not exist in a vacuum — they are the product of a multi-year downward trend that began reversing the pandemic-era surge, accelerated sharply in 2023 and 2024, and reached what appears to be a historic inflection point in 2025. Murders are down approximately 25% from 2019 pre-pandemic levels in major cities. Overall, as crime analyst Jeff Asher wrote in his December 2025 year-in-review, there were roughly 12,000 fewer murders in 2024 and 2025 combined than in 2020 and 2021 combined — an extraordinary reduction in lethal violence. At the same time, it is important to acknowledge, as Asher himself did, that approximately 14,000 Americans were still murdered in 2025 — a number that remains far too high by international comparisons and by any standard of a civilized society. This article brings together the most current, verified data available as of February 27, 2026, drawing exclusively on official government sources and peer-reviewed research organizations to give readers a complete, fact-based portrait of murder statistics in the US in 2026.

Interesting Murder Facts in the US 2026

Before breaking down the data by city, region, weapon, and historical trend, here are the most striking and verified top-line facts about murder and homicide in the United States in 2025–2026, drawn entirely from official and government-verified sources.

Source: Council on Criminal Justice, “Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Update,” January 2026 (counciloncj.org); FBI, “Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2024,” released August 5, 2025 (fbi.gov); Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA), Violent Crime Survey, January–September 2025, November 3, 2025 (majorcitieschiefs.com); AH Datalytics / Jeff Asher, Real-Time Crime Index analysis, December 2025 (jasher.substack.com); National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, 2025 Year-End Officer Fatalities Report (nleomf.org); White House, “President Trump Returned Our Nation to Law and Order,” February 24, 2026 (whitehouse.gov).

These numbers require honest interpretation. The 21% single-year drop in homicides in 2025 is the largest ever recorded — but it comes on the heels of an equally record-setting 31% single-year surge in 2020, meaning in many ways the country is still working its way back from an extraordinary anomaly. The FBI’s official 2024 murder rate of 5.0 per 100,000 — confirmed in August 2025 — was itself already the second consecutive year of record-setting annual declines, with a 14.9% drop from 2023 and a 10% drop from 2022. The trend is unambiguous and sustained across three consecutive years. What is also worth noting is the one crime category that increased in 2025: drug offenses, which rose 7% in CCJ’s sample cities — a reminder that even in a year of historic across-the-board declines, the substance abuse and addiction crisis driving much criminal activity has not receded.

The Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) data covering January through September 2025 from 67 of the largest law enforcement agencies in the country provides the most granular and authoritative real-time snapshot available: 4,143 homicides in those 67 cities in the first nine months of 2025, compared to 5,126 in the same period of 2024 — a drop of 983 fewer people killed, or −19.2%. Equally striking is the robbery figure: 66,501 robberies in the first nine months of 2025, down from 81,860 in 2024 — nearly 15,400 fewer robberies in a single nine-month period across America’s largest cities. The scale of these reductions is real and meaningful for the millions of people who live in these communities.

Overall Murder Rate in the US 2026

The most authoritative baseline for US murder statistics in 2026 is the FBI’s officially confirmed annual data for 2024, published August 5, 2025, combined with 2025 projections from the Council on Criminal Justice. The table below presents the confirmed and projected national murder rate trend from 2019 through 2025.

Source: FBI, “Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2024,” released August 5, 2025 (fbi.gov/news/press-releases); FBI preliminary data September 2024–August 2025 showing −18% homicide decline (ABC News, December 2025); Council on Criminal Justice, “Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Update,” January 2026 (counciloncj.org); AH Datalytics crime analysis, December 22, 2025. Note: 2025 figures are projections pending FBI full-year release in second half of 2026.

The multi-year trajectory of US murder statistics from 2019 through the 2025 projection is one of the most dramatic U-shaped curves in modern American crime data. The 31% homicide surge in 2020 was not an ordinary year-over-year increase — it was the largest single-year jump in recorded American history, exceeding even the crime waves of the 1960s and 1970s. It coincided with the convergence of three destabilizing forces: the COVID-19 pandemic (which shut courts, disrupted social services, and strained police capacity), widespread civil unrest following the killing of George Floyd (which in many cities led to reduced police activity and a breakdown of community-law enforcement trust), and the economic dislocation of the pandemic recession. The consequence was approximately 5,000 additional murders per year in 2020 and 2021 above the pre-pandemic baseline — an enormous and largely invisible human toll.

The reversal from 2022 through 2025 has been sustained and accelerating. Each of the three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 set a new single-year record for the largest year-over-year murder decline in FBI data history: −6% in 2022, −10% in 2023, −14.9% in 2024. The projected ~−20% decline in 2025 would be the fourth consecutive record — an extraordinary and historically unprecedented run of improvement. The CCJ’s projected 2025 murder rate of approximately 4.0 per 100,000 would sit below the prior FBI-era record low of 4.4 per 100,000 set in 2014 by a significant margin. Independent expert Jeff Asher, who noted his Real-Time Crime Index has historically tracked within 1.5 percentage points of the FBI’s final estimates, put his own projection at approximately 4.2 per 100,000 — either figure representing a transformational improvement from the 6.7 per 100,000 peak in 2020.

Murder Statistics by Major City in the US 2026

City-level data provides the most granular and verified picture of the 2025 murder decline across America. The MCCA Violent Crime Survey (January–September 2025, from 67 agencies) and full-year 2025 city police department releases confirm dramatic reductions across virtually every major metro area.

Source: Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA), Violent Crime Survey — National Totals, Comparison January 1 to September 30, 2025 and 2024, published November 3, 2025 (majorcitieschiefs.com). Note: Data is preliminary. Full-year city police department data for Chicago (ABC7 Chicago), New Orleans (Orleans DA Office), and Memphis (Memphis Police Dept.) cited in White House, February 24, 2026.

The breadth of the 2025 homicide decline across major American cities is arguably the most important single fact in this entire data set. Of the 67 agencies reporting to MCCA in the first nine months of 2025, the overwhelming majority showed significant reductions — and those reductions are concentrated most heavily in the cities that suffered the most severe pandemic-era spikes. Baltimore fell from 148 to 99 homicides (−33%) in the first nine months alone — a city that once led the nation in per-capita murder rates. Dallas dropped from 145 to 99 (−32%). Seattle fell an extraordinary 49%, from 47 to just 24 homicides in the first three quarters of 2025. Denver dropped 47%, from 60 to 32. These are not marginal statistical fluctuations — they represent hundreds of people who are alive today who would not have been alive under the prior year’s trend.

The headline city stories for the full year 2025 are equally striking. Chicago recorded its fewest murders since 1965 — a full-year count of 220 homicides in 2025, down approximately 30% from 2024 and down an astonishing 49% from the 2021 peak of nearly 800. New Orleans recorded its lowest homicide rate in nearly 50 years, according to the Orleans District Attorney’s office. Memphis fell below 200 murders for the first time since 2019. San Francisco is on track for its fewest murders since 1940, according to crime analyst Jeff Asher. The rare exceptions — cities like Milwaukee (+8%) and Kansas City (essentially flat) — serve as important reminders that the trend, while broad and sustained, is not universal, and that some communities continue to struggle even as national figures improve dramatically.

Murder Statistics by Violent Crime Category in the US 2026

The 2025 violent crime data covers far more than homicide. The Council on Criminal Justice’s year-end report tracks 13 crime categories, and the breadth of the decline across virtually every category of serious violence in 2025 is remarkable. The MCCA data from 67 agencies for January–September 2025 provides the most precise city-level comparison.

Source: Major Cities Chiefs Association, Violent Crime Survey — National Totals, Comparison January 1–September 30, 2025 and 2024, published November 3, 2025 (majorcitieschiefs.com).

The MCCA data covering 67 major U.S. law enforcement agencies through September 2025 paints an unmistakable picture: violent crime across America’s largest cities fell sharply and broadly in 2025 compared to 2024. The 983 fewer homicides in the first nine months alone — a 19.2% reduction — translates directly into hundreds of families not experiencing the loss of a loved one to murder. The 15,359 fewer robberies in the same period represents a massive reduction in the number of Americans victimized by violent theft. And the 21,662 fewer aggravated assaults — the largest absolute decline in any single category — means tens of thousands fewer serious injuries and hospitalizations from violent crime. The 6.1% decline in rapes is smaller but still meaningful, continuing a multi-year downward trend that the FBI confirmed nationally with a 5.2% decline in 2024 over 2023.

The CCJ’s full-year 2025 data adds critical additional depth to the picture. Gun assaults fell 22% in 2025 compared to 2024 — a category the FBI only recently began tracking nationally that captures the broad universe of shootings beyond those that result in death. Carjackings plummeted 43% — one of the largest single-category drops in the entire 2025 dataset, and a reversal of a trend that had made carjacking a headline crime in cities like Chicago and Washington, D.C., during 2021–2023. Residential burglaries fell 17% and non-residential burglaries fell 18%. Motor vehicle thefts dropped 27% after years of increases driven by keyless entry vulnerabilities. The one category to increase was drug offenses, up 7% — reflecting both continued enforcement activity and the persistent challenge of addiction and the fentanyl crisis, which have not abated even as street violence has fallen sharply.

Historical Murder Rate Trends in the US 2026

Understanding where US murder statistics stand in 2026 requires the proper historical frame. The FBI has tracked murder rates since 1960 using consistent methodology, and the trajectory over the past six-plus decades reveals how extraordinary both the 2020 spike and the current decline truly are.

Source: FBI, Crime in the United States (CIUS) series, 1960–2024. FBI, “Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2024,” August 5, 2025 (fbi.gov). Council on Criminal Justice, Year-End 2025 Crime Trends Report, January 2026 (counciloncj.org). AH Datalytics / Jeff Asher analysis, December 22, 2025. Historical data 1900–1959 from Randolph Roth, American Homicide (public health / death certificate data), as cited in CCJ Year-End 2025 report.

The historical arc of American murder statistics reveals a pattern that should instill both humility and urgency in the current moment. The peak murder rate of the modern era reached 10.2 per 100,000 in 1980 — roughly two and a half times the projected 2025 rate — at the height of a decades-long crime surge driven by urban disinvestment, the crack cocaine epidemic, gang proliferation, and weakened criminal justice institutions. The long decline from that peak through the 1990s and 2000s was one of the great unheralded social policy successes of the late 20th century, driven by a complex mix of targeted policing strategies, mass incarceration, demographic change, and economic factors. The 2014 low of 4.4 per 100,000 represented the culmination of more than two decades of sustained reduction.

The 2020 reversal — from 5.0 per 100,000 in 2019 to 6.7 in 2020 — was a dramatic and sudden interruption of that progress, and it was genuinely the largest single-year percentage increase in homicides since at least 1900, according to the CCJ’s historical analysis. The significance of the projected 2025 rate of approximately 4.0 per 100,000 is therefore twofold: it not only reverses all of the pandemic surge, it appears set to break through the pre-existing floor established in 2014 and reach lows not seen in reliable comparable data since before World War II. Whether the cause is attributed to federal law enforcement action, local policing strategies, demographic trends, or the natural reversal of pandemic disruptions — or, most likely, a combination of all these factors — the Council on Criminal Justice has been explicit that its report “is not evidence of a policy’s success or failure; it simply documents recent crime trends.”

FBI 2024 Official Murder Statistics in the US

While 2025 projections dominate the current conversation, the most recently officially confirmed national murder data from the FBI covers the full calendar year 2024, released August 5, 2025. This data is the last fully verified baseline available before 2025 final figures are published later in 2026.

Source: FBI, “Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2024” (comprising Crime in the United States 2024, NIBRS 2024, Hate Crime Statistics 2024), released August 5, 2025 (fbi.gov/news/press-releases). CBS News analysis of FBI 2024 data, August 6, 2025. Center for American Progress analysis of FBI 2024 data, August 11, 2025.

The FBI’s 2024 crime report is the gold standard of verified US murder statistics currently available, and its findings are nothing short of extraordinary across the board. The 14.9% decline in murders in 2024 was, at the time of its release, the largest single-year homicide drop in FBI history — only to be apparently surpassed by the ~20% projected decline in 2025. The 2024 murder rate of 5.0 per 100,000 matched the 2019 pre-pandemic baseline, effectively erasing the entire COVID crime surge in homicide in just four years. The broader violent crime picture is equally impressive: 359.1 violent crimes per 100,000 in 2024 was the lowest rate since 1969 — a 55-year low — confirming that the improvement is not limited to murders alone but reflects a broad improvement in public safety across all violent crime categories.

The gun homicide decline of 16.7% in 2024 is particularly significant because firearms were the primary driver of the pandemic-era murder surge: a 44% increase in firearm-related homicides between March 2020 and October 2021 had accounted for the bulk of the rise. The reversal of that specific trend — gun killings falling faster than any other homicide category — suggests that the conditions that made gun violence surge (breakdown of social norms, reduced enforcement, gang conflict) are normalizing. The clearance rate for violent crime stands at 43.8% — meaning that for every 100 violent crimes reported to law enforcement in 2024, detectives solved and closed fewer than 44. For murder specifically, clearance rates historically run considerably higher (around 50–55%), but the roughly one-in-two chances that a murder goes unsolved remains one of the most pressing challenges in American public safety and a factor that can, over time, erode the deterrent effect of law enforcement.

Murder Statistics by Region in the US 2026

Regional variation in US murder statistics is significant and persistent. The MCCA data and CCJ’s analysis both confirm that while declines were broad in 2025, the South continues to account for the largest share of homicides, and regional gaps reflect deep structural differences in poverty, gun ownership, and urban density.

Source: FBI, “Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2024,” August 5, 2025 (fbi.gov); Council on Criminal Justice, Year-End 2025 Crime Trends Report, January 2026 (counciloncj.org); Major Cities Chiefs Association, Violent Crime Survey Jan–Sep 2025 (majorcitieschiefs.com); Center for American Progress analysis of FBI 2024 regional data, August 11, 2025.

The regional picture of American murder statistics reflects some of the deepest structural realities of the country’s geography and history. The South consistently records the highest homicide rates of any U.S. census region — a fact that has been true for decades and reflects the intersection of higher rates of poverty, greater gun ownership, hotter temperatures (which correlate with interpersonal violence in the research literature), and a higher proportion of young males in certain demographics. States like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas regularly feature among the highest per-capita murder rates in the country. Meanwhile, the Northeast — despite being home to some of the largest cities in America — consistently records the lowest regional homicide rates, benefiting from decades of investment in urban policing strategies, lower rates of gun ownership, and higher incomes in many communities.

The 2025 improvements have been most visible and dramatic in large metropolitan areas, particularly those in the Midwest and South that suffered the most catastrophic pandemic-era surges. The MCCA data makes clear that cities like Chicago, Dallas, Baltimore, and New Orleans — all large urban metros in the Midwest and South — account for a disproportionate share of both the total homicide count and the 2025 decline. The FBI’s 2024 regional data shows that even nonmetropolitan counties saw a 16% decline in murders and suburban areas saw a 12.4% decline, confirming that the improvement is genuinely national in scope and not limited to the most-watched urban markets. The challenge going forward is sustaining this progress in communities where structural factors — concentrated poverty, limited economic opportunity, inadequate mental health resources — continue to generate the conditions that make violence more likely, regardless of what the headline numbers say in any given year.

Disclaimer: The data reports published on The Global Files are sourced from publicly available materials considered reliable. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, no guarantees are provided regarding completeness or reliability. The Global Files is not liable for any errors, omissions, or damages resulting from the use of these reports.